The Guardian Reports: Nokia's second coming, if it happens, is some way off. The Finnish giant is pinning its hopes of a return to the smartphone market on the newly arrived Lumia 800.
But estimates for Christmas sales of its "Jesus phone" are dwindling by the day.
Last week, US technology investment specialist Pacific Crest revised down its estimates for Lumia sales from 2m to just 500,000 by Christmas. Now even that number looks ambitious.
A forecast from market research firm IDC suggests that 520,000 phones using the Windows operating system – made by HTC and Samsung as well as Nokia's Lumia – will ship in Western Europe in the fourth quarter. This compares with 140,000 Windows Phones shipped in the third quarter.The difference of 380,000 can largely be attributed to the Lumia. It has only launched in six countries, and those countries that don't have it are ordering Windows phones at pre-Lumia levels.
On current form, the Lumia will barely make Apple blink. The new iPhone 4S, released in October, sold 4m units in is first three days. It would be fairer to make comparisons with previous Nokia handsets, but even here the numbers are underwhelming.
Nokia's last big smartphone launch was in October 2010 with the N8, which ran on its by then outmoded Symbian operating system.
Before Christmas, the Lumia will be available only in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. IDC calculates that in those markets, the N8 shipped 780,000 units by its first Christmas, almost double what the Lumia will achieve.
Surprising, given the Lumia is being supported by Nokia's largest ever marketing campaign, with television advertising aplenty and a reported $1bn (£640m) in subsidy from Microsoft as a thank you for using its software. Orange is even giving away an Xbox 360 with every handset.
The network operators have said repeatedly that they want it to succeed, because it is their interest, and in the consumer's interest, to have a choice of three big operating systems. Nobody wants to see Apple's iOS and Google's Android become too dominant.
The suggestion is that Nokia has kept supplies to retailers deliberately low. The company does not want to see its most premium product discounted in the January sales. A sold out phone is infinitely more desirable than an oversupplied one taking up space in the stock room.
The company said last week that Lumia had the best ever first week of Nokia smartphone sales in the UK in recent history. In this country, Windows phone shipments will quadruple from 50,000 last quarter to 200,000 this quarter, according to IDC.
Orange is already reporting that some of its stores have sold out, suggesting that for Nokia these first few months are all about heightening demand rather than failing to generate it.
A small-scale launch may also be wise at this stage. There have been teething problems with the phone, with some owners – including yours truly – finding the battery drains fast and then won't recharge.
Nokia says this is to do with the brain rather than with the hardware, and will issue two software updates.
There are bound to be glitches. The phone was produced in a race against time, eight months after Nokia announced it was dumping Symbian in favour of Windows.
And Nokia has always said that Lumia's big push will not come until next year, when Microsoft releases a new version of its operating system which the Finnish manufacturer will have had a chance to shape.
Marketing will ramp up again in the new year, when the full colour range will be available – only the black model is on sale now, blue will come in December and pink in January.
The pre-Christmas season has been about changing the attitudes of opinion formers. Microsoft only introduced its Windows Phone operating system last year, and the shop floor sales people were not evangelising. Many didn't know the product – Microsoft had 0.6% market share in Europe until Lumia's arrival.
By Christmas next year, IDC predicts 3m Windows phones will sell per quarter in Western Europe, just under 10% of all smartphone sales.
World domination is a long way off. The Lumia in its current form is no "Jesus phone". More a prophet, heralding bigger things to come.
(Source: The Guardian)
(Source: The Guardian)
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